The Importance Of Innovation Metrics Video
Innovation Metrics The Importance Of Innovation MetricsEarly observations[ edit ] In during the town planning conference of London Daniel Burnham noted that "But it is not merely in the number of facts or sorts of knowledge that progress lies: it is still more in the geometric ratio of sophistication, in The Importance Of Innovation Metrics geometric widening of the sphere of knowledge, which every year is taking in a larger percentage of people as time goes on. Moore's law describes an exponential growth pattern in the complexity of integrated semiconductor circuits. Moravec extends this to include technologies from long before the integrated circuit to future forms of technology.
Moravec outlines a timeline and a scenario [5] [6] in which robots will evolve into a new series of artificial species, starting around — Extrapolating these trends, he speculates about a coming "mind fire" of rapidly expanding superintelligence similar to the explosion of intelligence predicted by Vinge.
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James Burke's The Importance Of Innovation Metrics edit ] This section does not cite any sources. Please help improve this section by adding citations to reliable sources. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed. Burke contends that one cannot consider the development of any particular piece of the modern world in isolation. Rather, Metircs entire gestalt of the modern world is the result of a web of interconnected events, each one consisting of a person or group acting for reasons of their own motivations e.
The interplay of the results of these isolated events is what drives history and innovation, and is also the main focus of the series and its sequels. Burke also explores three corollaries to his initial thesis.
The first is that, if history is driven by individuals who act only on Innivation they know at the time, and not because of any idea as to where their actions will eventually lead, The Importance Of Innovation Metrics predicting the future course of technological progress is merely conjecture. Therefore, if we are astonished by the connections Burke is able to Merics among past events, then we will be equally surprised to what the events of today eventually will lead, especially events we weren't even aware of at the time. The second and third corollaries are explored most in the introductory and concluding episodes, and they represent the downside of an interconnected history.
If history progresses because of the synergistic interaction of past events and innovations, then as history does progress, the number of these events and innovations increases. This increase in possible connections causes the process of innovation to not only continue, but to accelerate. Burke poses the question The Importance Of Innovation Metrics what happens when this rate of innovation, or more importantly change itself, becomes too much for the average person to handle, and what this means for individual power, liberty, and privacy.
Hawkins elucidated his notion of 'mindsteps', dramatic and irreversible changes to paradigms or world views. He identified five distinct mindsteps in human history, and the technology that accompanied these "new world views": the invention of imagery, writing, mathematics, printing, the telescope, rocket, radio, TV, computer One can't help noticing the acceleration.
The date of the next mindstep 5; the series begins at 0 is given aswith two further, successively closer mindsteps in anduntil the limit of the series in The Importance Of Innovation Metrics His speculations ventured beyond the technological: The mindsteps None of the mindsteps can be said to have been truly anticipated, and most were resisted at the early stages.
In looking to the future we may equally be caught unawares. We may have to grapple with the presently inconceivable, with mind-stretching discoveries and concepts.
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Mass Importaance of inventions: Years until use http://pinsoftek.com/wp-content/custom/life-in-hell/henry-david-thoreau-quote-analysis.php a quarter of US population Vinge's exponentially accelerating change[ edit ] The mathematician Vernor Vinge popularized his ideas about exponentially accelerating technological change in the science fiction novel Marooned in Realtime Inmovation, set in a world of rapidly accelerating progress leading to the emergence of more and more sophisticated technologies separated by shorter and shorter time intervals, until a point beyond human comprehension is reached. His subsequent Hugo award -winning novel A Fire Upon the Deep starts with an imaginative description of the evolution of a superintelligence passing through exponentially accelerating developmental stages ending in a transcendentalmost omnipotent power unfathomable by mere humans.
His already mentioned influential paper on the technological singularity compactly summarizes the basic ideas. Kurzweil's The Law of Accelerating Returns[ edit ] In his book The Age of Spiritual MachinesRay Kurzweil proposed "The Law of Accelerating Returns", according to which the rate of change in a wide variety of evolutionary systems including but not limited to the growth of technologies tends to increase exponentially. Whenever a technology approaches some kind of a barrier, according to Kurzweil, a new technology will be invented to allow us to cross that barrier. He cites numerous past examples of this to substantiate his assertions.
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He predicts that such paradigm shifts have and will continue to become increasingly common, leading to "technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The essay begins: http://pinsoftek.com/wp-content/custom/stamps/the-great-gatsby-and-twelfth-night-analysis.php analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view.
So we won't experience years of progress in the 21st century—it will be more like 20, years of progress at today's rate.]
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